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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/03 10:39

   Grain Futures Seeing Red Midday Friday

   Corn trade is flat to 1 cent lower, beans are 6 to 8 cents lower and wheat 
trade is 6 to 10 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn trade is flat to 1 cent lower, beans are 6 to 8 cents lower and wheat 
trade is 6 to 10 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 75 
points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.80 higher. Interest rate products are 
weaker. Energies are mixed with crude up $0.20 and natural gas off $0.08.  
Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals weaker with gold 
down $50.00.


   Corn trade is flat to 1 cent lower at midday Friday with trade fading into 
nearby support levels and slightly weaker spread action as early day session 
strength fading once again. Ethanol margins have support from natural gas while 
blender margins tighten again with the recent fade in unleaded values, but 
spring blends will boost margins soon. Crop development will continue to be 
watched with drier weather short term in Argentina and early double crop 
planting in Brazil to expand rapidly in coming days. The daily export wire was 
silent for corn all week. Basis has stabilized in the west with above average 
action holding up overall. On the March chart, support is at the $6.73 20-day 
moving average, which we are testing at midday with the upper Bollinger Band at 
$6.93 the next round up, which we have faded from last week with a fresh high 
for the move being scored at $6.88 3/4, which we tested Thursday.


   Soybeans are 6 to 8 cents lower with expanding Brazil harvest and short-term 
dryness in Argentina while nearby U.S. demand appears to have slowed down a bit 
this week. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 higher and oil is 1.55 cents to 1.65 cents 
lower. The daily export wire saw 132,000 metric tons soybeans sold to unknown 
for new crop. Trade will be looking for the Brazil export pace to pick up soon 
as harvest expands further, while Argentina will be watched for further 
deterioration. Basis remains mostly sideways near term. March chart support is 
at the $15.13 20-day, which we remain solidly above, with the upper Bollinger 
Band at $15.49.


   Wheat trade is 6 to 10 cents lower at midday with KC the downside leader as 
trade once again tested resistance early in the session before fading, with 
spread trade remaining solid. The Southern Plains should show improvement 
temperature wise with the best rain shots for the eastern plains, and little 
change to the Europe and Black Sea situation short term. Matif wheat values are 
flat but holding up better than U.S. values so far. On the chart, KC March has 
support at the 20-day moving average at $8.48, which we are solidly above, with 
the recent high at $8.95 as resistance with the upper Bollinger Band at $8.92.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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